Instant View: November nonfarm payrolls rose by 146,000

Published December 07, 2012

| Reuters

Nonfarm employment increased by 146,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, defying expectations of a sharp pull back related to superstorm Sandy.

However, job gains for both September and October were revised to show 49,000 fewer jobs created in those months than earlier reported.

The jobless rate fell to 7.7 percent last month, the lowest since December 2008. But the drop was because people gave up the search for work, which does not bode well for the economy

ANALYSTS COMMENTS:

JACOB OUBINA, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK

"The big takeaway is that Sandy did not have the negative effect that people thought it would have. We are left with a number that is around the average of the year and so this not dramatically better than feared.

"It is also not a breakout of the trend. The labor market is not getting worse, but is also not getting much better as it is unchanged relative to the recent trend. This should have no impact on Fed policy and the central bank should remain on cruise control and continue with the QE program into the new year."

DAVID SLOAN, ECONOMIST, 4CAST LTD, NEW YORK

"The surprise was that hurricane Sandy didn't have much of an impact. Otherwise really it is more of the same. The payrolls are pretty much in line with trend and the revisions were significant in government but fairly neutral in the private sector, and the private sector payrolls are maintaining the pre-hurricane trend. The picture remains as it was before hurricane Sandy."

JEREMY LAWSON SENIOR US ECONOMIST BNP PARIBAS, NEW YORK

"Private payrolls did decline a little bit in the month so maybe this is a sign that Sandy didn't have much of an impact on employment.

It doesn't change the outlook for the Fed...I still would be expecting them to announce next week that they'll be extending their purchases to next year.

"I wouldn't go far necessarily, the big issue over the next few months is what happens with the fiscal cliff. Our view is that plays out in a benign way."

KATHY LIEN, MANAGING DIRECTOR, BK ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK

"Overall, this is a pretty good number, even though we had a downward revision to the previous month. Most important, the unemployment level dropped to its lowest level since December 2008. Sandy didn't have as much of an impact as many feared.

"The real question though is whether this changes the Fed's attitude toward more stimulus. It doesn't remove the need for stimulus but might convince the Fed to opt for a smaller program. The dollar is rallying right now, and that should last, particularly against the yen."

KATHY JONES, FIXED-INCOME STRATEGIST, CHARLES SCHWAB, NEW YORK

The data is even more muddled than we thought because the BLS is telling us that superstorm Sandy did not impact the numbers. The downward revision to the previous month's payroll growth almost offsets the higher than expected number this month. And the decline in the unemployment rate, which is a good sign, may be tied to a decline in the labor force participation rate. You have good news here and bad news so I would not call it a particularly strong report."

RUSSELL PRICE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN

"Initial claims are settling back into their pre-Sandy levels. So the negative impact from the spike that we experienced after hurricane Sandy is abating.

"It's a little bit too early (to forecast December) but it does give us a positive trend that claims have now fallen for four straight weeks and it's a positive indicator that the labor market is remaining fairly solid although certainly not robust by any means."

MARKET REACTION:

STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures turn positive

BONDS: U.S. bond prices down

FOREX: The dollar gains versus euro

(Americas Economics and Markets Desk; +1-646 223-6300)

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