Select Comfort Stock Has a Lot to Prove on Monday

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The air is getting choppy for the top dog in air-chambered mattresses. Select Comfort (NASDAQ: SCSS) reports fresh quarterly results shortly after Monday's close, and there's a lot riding on the report. 

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Select Comfort stock has been volatile lately. The shares surged late last month after Dealreporter speculated that Tempur Sealy International (NYSE: TPX) was pursuing a buyout of Select Comfort. The stock would go on to give back all of those gains a week later when analysts talked down a potential pairing. Monday afternoon will be Select Comfort's first opportunity to address the buyout chatter. 

Another big reason a lot is riding on the second-quarter performance is that the stock surged 28% the day after it posted blowout first-quarter results three months ago. Select Comfort tends to move on earnings, so Monday's numbers leading into Tuesday's price action could get bumpy.

Letting the bed bugs bite

Analysts are holding out for modest growth in Monday's report. They see revenue climbing 8% to $300.2 million with earnings per share climbing from $0.03 to $0.05. Select Comfort blew Wall Street's targets away last time out, but it's worth pointing out that it missed analyst profit estimates badly in each of the two quarters before that. 

At least one Wall Street pro feels that investors should be buying in ahead of Monday's report. Peter Keith at Piper Jaffray put out a bullish note on Friday, arguing that the stock's weakness following the fading Tempur Sealy buyout chatter presents a buying opportunity. He sees the potential for a rough second quarter given delivery delays, but Keith doesn't expect Select Comfort to hose down its guidance. He's sticking to his overweight rating. Keith has seen his price target grow from $25 to $32 and now $37 in the past few months.

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Another meaty morsel in Monday's report will be any color provided on the Sleep Number 360, a high-tech mattress that Select Comfort is marketing as its first smart bed. Intelligent biometrics help tweak the bed's firmness based on the restlessness of its user. 

Select Comfort's previous quarter was a winner all around. It surpassed expectations, raised its full-year guidance, and had encouraging product news. It may not nail all three aspects again on Monday, but with the stock now trading lower than it was after last quarter's one-day pop, it may not have to go 3-for-3 again. 

 

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Rick Munarriz owns shares of Select Comfort. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.