Published November 21, 2011
The week 11 finale features the Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) on the road at Foxborough taking on the New England Patriots (6-3).
The Chiefs took another major blow when QB Matt Cassel injured his throwing hand last week against Denver and could miss the rest of the season. The team has already been dealing with season-ending injuries to RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry. QB Tyler Palko will get the start and could have the opportunity for some heroics coming up against the statistically worst defense in the league, which is giving up 308.9 yards per game. WR Dwayne Bowe, who has hit a rough patch with no touchdowns in the last four games, is averaging 16.2 yards per pass and could open up the Patriots secondary.
The Chiefs are ninth in rushing offense led by Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster, who are both averaging 4.6 yards per carry. A strong running game against the Patriots defense will help settle Palko. One area where the Chiefs will have to step up is in the pass rush. They are last in the league with only nine sacks -- but six of them are by OLB Tamba Hali. Teams have shown pressuring Brady is the key to beating the Patriots.
The Patriots snapped a two-game losing streak and seized sole control of the AFC East with a victory over the Jets last week. Tom Brady leads the league with 336.9 yards per game passing and is second with a QB rating of 102.0. One of the matchups to note is the Patriot’s running game -- 19th in the league picking up 105.9 yards per game -- up against the Chiefs’ 27th ranked run defense which is allowing 134 yards per game.
The Patriots also have a number of injuries; WR Wes Welker, who leads the league in receiving with 1,006 yards, was limited in practice with a sore knee. Corner Devon McCourtey, who suffered a shoulder injury, is still listed as doubtful despite returning to limited practice last week and S Patrick Chung is still listed as questionable with a foot injury.
FOX Business has evaluated the win/loss and stock market statistics over the past 20 seasons of Monday night NFL games and come up with a Monday Night Markets (MNM) score for each team based on their record and the prior week’s market activity. Let’s take a look at what the markets have to say.
The major indices ended last week with sharp losses, with the Dow Industrials closing out the week down 2.94% and the S&P 500 losing 3.81%. While there was some positive data on retail sales and wholesale inflation, the markets were heavily pressured by the fading optimism that new governments in Italy and Greece would be enough to contain the debt crisis. Financial stocks dragged on the markets after Fitch Ratings said that the Euro-zone debt crisis posed a risk to US banks’ rating outlook, while strength in the dollar pushed energy and commodity stocks lower.
Over the past 20 years, the Chiefs have played 25 Monday night games and based on our calculations have a Monday night rank of .563 when the Dow closes the prior week down and .563 when the S&P 500 is down, giving them a MNM rank for this week of .563.
During the same 20-year period, the Patriots have played 25 Monday night games and have a rank of .545 when the Dow is down and .600 when the S&P 500 is down, giving them a MNM rank this week of .573.
Monday Night Markets picks the New England Patriots at home.
FBN STAFF PICKS - WEEK 11
Chris Cotter (7-4)
We’ll be hearing musket fire all night long… Pats easy.
Sandra Smith (8-3)
Going with the Pats!
Robert Gray (6-4)
Kansas City comes into the game with a backup QB starting and after losing their star running back early this season. New England’s defense doesn’t have the best numbers, but they are stout enough to stop opponents when it counts. This is crunch time and the Pats won’t overlook an overmatched opponent at home on national TV. Pats are the Pick.
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