By Nick Tattersall
LAGOS, Aug 25 (Reuters) - When Nigerian President Goodluck
Jonathan presents a roadmap on Thursday for ending chronic power
shortages, it is not just infrastructure financiers and
industrialists who want to hear what he has to offer.
Jonathan has made bringing reliable electricity to the
nation's 140 million people a cornerstone of his administration
and it is no coincidence that he has chosen to unveil his power
sector reform programme at a rare public presentation in Lagos
less than five months before presidential elections.
Constant power outages are perhaps the greatest paradox of
life in Nigeria, which despite being the continent's biggest oil
and gas producer is reliant on belching diesel generators to
power everything from phone chargers to luxury hotels.
Government after government has pledged to fix the problem,
but powerful vested interests, such as billionaire tycoons who
import diesel and generators, and the chronic mismanagement of
state-run utilities has meant little progress has been made.
"Stable power is a number one priority for Nigerians and
Nigerian companies ... His predecessors have promised to sort
out the power problem, but to no avail," said Kayode Akindele, a
director at consultancy Greengate Strategic Partners.
"President Jonathan has made it a key pledge ... There is no
time to assess his performance in this sector with elections in
a few months, but it will definitely be a key plank of any
presidential bid by him," he told Reuters.
Jonathan has not yet said whether or not he will run in
polls due in January, but recent announcements by his
administration suggest he is gearing up for a bid.
He has pledged to partly privatise a domestic power sector
made up of inefficient state monopolies, ringing the right bells
with foreign investors who stand ready to invest billions of
dollars once the sector is properly regulated.
It has also raised hope among some that Jonathan could, at
last, be the leader who solves the country's most pervasive
problem. Some of his fans have suggested a decline in blackouts
in recent weeks is already the fruit of his labours. Others
point out heavy rains have filled hydroelectric dams.
Nigeria's generation sometimes plunges below 1,000 megawatts
(MW), largely due to a lack of maintenance at power stations,
around a tenth of the country's basic needs. South Africa, with
a third of Nigeria's population, has ten times the capacity.
The central bank says 60 million people rely on generators
and spend $13 billion a year fuelling them.
Some parts of Jonathan's reform programme are already known.
The government said in May state power company PHCN would
increase the amount it pays energy firms such as Royal Dutch
Shell and Exxon Mobil for their gas, the main source for
electricity generation, over the coming years.
The previous gas pricing regime gave energy companies too
little incentive to provide gas for domestic power generation.
Jonathan has said Nigeria will privatise electricity
generation and distribution next year, and the privatisation
agency this week announced it was seeking bidders for 11
electricity distribution firms.
Two weeks ago, he announced plans for a $3.5 billion
"supergrid" to be financed with the private sector and
development agencies, which would boost generating capacity to
over 14,000 megawatts (MW) by the end of 2013.
Nigeria's Business Day newspaper said on Wednesday the World
Bank had pledged $800 million to help fund the reforms.
The central bank said on Wednesday it was ready to release
$2 billion in funding to stimulate lending, much of it to help
the development of projects in the power sector.
"This is one of the key pillars of reforms and of his
political agenda," said Bismarck Rewane, head of Lagos-based
consultancy Financial Derivatives.
"If he can come through with power reforms and they are
sustained, it could be a political game changer," he said, but
added electoral reforms also promised by Jonathan would be
needed too to ensure he had a credible mandate.
Political analysts point out that while Jonathan is making
all of the right noises, laying out the plan is the easy part.
Fighting the corruption and mismanagement that have bedevilled
the sector will be much more of a test.
A strike by PHCN workers could mean even Jonathan will be
relying on generators to power his presentation on Thursday. It
could also be a sign of the battles still to come.
For a factbox on the reforms, please click
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(Writing by Nick Tattersall; editing by Sue Thomas)