By Leika Kihara
TOKYO, July 30 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is expected to
opt for minor tweaks if it were to ease policy further,
avoiding radical steps such as a return to quantitative easing.
The central bank sees no point in force-feeding money to
banks, which have abundant cash but little use for it because
uncertain economic outlook makes firms reluctant to borrow.
With the economy recovering, the BOJ does not see an
immediate need to ease its policy further and its near-term
focus is to shield the economy from adverse market moves, such
as sharp yen gains that could hurt exports and business
sentiment.
It stands ready, however, to act if economic conditions
deteriorated and below are some of its policy options:
EXPAND FUND SUPPLY TOOL
Possibility: Most likely
The BOJ started in December, and expanded in March, a fund
supply scheme under which it funnels up to 20 trillion yen
($230.5 billion) in three-month loans to banks at 0.1 percent.
It failed to boost bank lending, which marked its seventh
straight month of annual falls in June, but helped push the yen
off a 14-year high against the dollar in December.
Increasing the amount of funds available, or extending the
duration of loans to six months, may push down interbank
lending rates and indirectly weaken the yen, analysts say.
The BOJ does not rule out such an option, but sceptics
there argue that with investors now viewing yen more as a safe
haven than focusing on short-term interest rate differentials,
lowering money market rates will not stem yen rises the way it
did last December.
"It's an option but it won't work both in terms of
affecting currency moves and supporting the economy," said a
source familiar with the BOJ's thinking. The move would
therefore be a token gesture to show the central bank was doing
what it could to support the economy.
In December, the scheme's launch pushed three-month yen
LIBOR rates below dollar LIBOR, nudging the yen lower against
the dollar by making it relatively more attractive as a carry
trade funding currency. Now yen LIBOR rates are already below
dollar LIBOR.
Market reaction: It may push down longer-term money market
rates, such as six-month yen borrowing costs.
BUY MORE GOVERNMENT BONDS
Possibility: Likely
A less attractive option for the BOJ, worried that
increasing its bond purchases from the current 21.6 trillion
yen per year may give markets the impression it is directly
financing government spending.
But this may become tempting if benchmark 10-year bond
yields, now hovering at a seven-year low, bounce back on
renewed worries about Japan's tattered finances. By buying more
bonds the central bank would ease the pressure on the
government. It could also prove a more effective way of
propping up the economy, affecting longer-term yields, which
have more room to fall than short-term rates that are close to
zero.
Market reaction: Bond yields may briefly fall, subsequently
pushing down the yen. But yields may bounce up if markets feel
Japan is losing control over debt management.
STRENGHTEN COMMITMENT TO EASY POLICY
Possibility: Less likely
If the government steps up pressure on the BOJ to ease its
policy further it may cave in to lawmakers' calls to set a more
rigid inflation target and commit itself to more steps to beat
deflation.
But this is highly unlikely for now, as Governor Masaaki
Shirakawa is against setting a strict price target for fear of
binding future monetary policy, BOJ officials say.
It may instead opt for a more vague commitment, such as
pledging to keep rates low until Japan is comfortably out of
deflation. The Federal Reserve's stated commitment to keep
official rates low for an "extended period" could be a good
example, analysts say.
The challenge would be make the pledge clear enough to be
effective, but vague enough to leave policy options open.
Market reaction: Two-year bond yields, most sensitive to
monetary policy, may fall. But the move may be short-lived as
such commitment is effective when markets are starting to
factor in the chance of a rate hike, which is not the case now.
REVERT TO QUANTITATIVE EASING, ZERO RATES
Possibility: Highly unlikely
The BOJ already floods markets with cash as it had done
during its five-year quantitative easing policy until 2006.
But it is strongly against reverting to a formal
quantitative easing policy with its liquidity target, as it
feels the policy did little to boost the economy or beat
deflation.
Achieving a liquidity target would also be tougher now as
banks are in less need of funds than early this decade, when
Japan was mired in a severe credit crunch, BOJ officials say.
Cutting the policy rate to zero from 0.1 percent is also
among the least favourable options, as it would discourage
banks from trading in the money market and make it tough for
the BOJ to guide short-term rates.
Market reaction: The shift would come as a surprise and
sharply push down money market rates, bond yields and the yen.
(Editing by Tomasz Janowski)


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