The doom and gloomers are out in force, but don't be fooled by their blinkered concretism when it comes to the health of the US economy.

Listen I'm a realist, I'm no Pollyanna, I know there's acute pain out there and that this economy may be in the weeds for a few years now. We won't know whether the recent 0.6% GDP quarterly growth rate gets adjusted downward for a few months from now, so we won't know whether the US economy is in a recession. Many say we are.

But the doom and gloomers ignore the fact that the US economy has been growing at breakneck speed for five years, and any growth, no matter how fractional, is huge as it comes off a massive $12t economic base. It's more, too, then the fact they shy away from this bit of info, that the US economy has added something like the equivalent of five Saudi Arabias, or one Great Britain or China since the the Bush tax cuts of 2003.

The doom and gloomers ignore too this fact, that financial booms and busts have been a hallmark of the world economy historically, with more than 30 such severe busts since the first one, the south sea bubble of 1720 and ending with the '87 crash, according to Charles Kindleberger's "Manias, Panics and Crashes." Since then, the US economy has seen two recessions, and two busts, the dotcom crash and now two more joined at a meta-hip, the housing and credit crisis.

A market pro also disgruntled by the crowd that wants you to slam your door shut and get out the nail gun is Brian Hamilton, who runs the stock market and economic research firm Sageworks of Research Triangle Park, NC. He says: "I am not sure that the news coverage remotely reflects what is really going on in our economy."

Here's Hamilton's dose of reality, adding more to the broad-zoom perspective I have been advocating since the fall. Hamilton now takes the stage:   

1.US employment: Today, our unemployment rate is roughly 5%. Last year at this time, the unemployment rate was 4.5%.  Five years ago, the rate was 6%. The average rate of unemployment over the past 50 years is 5.86%. So, the rate of unemployment is higher today than a year ago, but it is by no means stark. A fair number of economists have set the "natural" rate of unemployment at about 6% to account for those people temporarily off of payrolls. Some would argue that the current trend is bad, but they typically go too far in assuming that small trends will become long-term trends. (These are the same types of forecasters who, in the 60s, projected overpopulation would cause worldwide economic calamity);

2. Disposable income: The average household income in 2006 was $48,201. In 2005, it was $46,326. Ten years ago it was $38,885. Real US disposable income has been rising nicely for over 40 years. On balance, it would be extremely difficult to contend that people have a lower standard of living today than five years ago;

3. US inflation: The current rate of inflation is 3.98%. Last year, it was 2.78%.  Over the past 50 years, the average rate has been about 4.10%. While gas prices are definitely a problem in the US right now, especially for lower and middle income earners (and especially with relation to our dependence upon foreign oil), overall price inflation is acceptable and even positive. Do you remember the late '70s?  Starting in the late '70s, Paul Volcker's Federal Reserve made a great effort to curb the devastating effects of inflation in the United States; 

4. U.S. interest rates:  If you want to buy a house today, the average 30-year mortgage will cost you 5.97%. Ten years ago, the same interest rate might have been 7.13%. Thirty years ago, the rate would have been 9.2%. The "credit crunch" we are experiencing (whatever that is; I have yet to hear an acceptable or uniformly applied definition of "credit crunch") might be noise on the screen, but people and businesses are still able to borrow cheaply, which is all that counts on an aggregate level.  In order for banks to make money, they need to lend money. Let's assume that banks want to make money. If they lend money at low rates of interest and people are buying things, this component will be fine;

5. U.S. GDP growth:  In the last quarter, GDP growth was 0.6%, which, while nothing to write home about, is positive, not negative. Last year, GDP growth was 2.2%. Five years ago, it was 2.5%. The average real rate of GDP growth for the past 50 years has been 3.31%. It is clear that GDP is slipping today, which is not good at all, but real GDP growth is still positive, albeit anemic. It makes sense that, after almost 10 years of high growth, it might slow down for a short time. (Keep in mind that the average "recessionary" GDP cycle has been about 11 months, while the average expansionary cycle has been about four years.)

Hamilton adds that: "So, while the US economy is admittedly slowing, if you use basic and reliable economic data, it seems clear that, despite what you hear daily throughout--almost literally--the entire media world, we are not in a recession."