Published October 25, 2013
The battle over wealth redistribution in the U.S. is ongoing in Washington D.C. with: South vs. North, East vs. West, union vs. nonunion, poor vs. rich, bond vs. stock, and brother vs. brother.
The Obamacare defunding fight almost led to a debt default. And here in Cleveland the efficient-world-renown not-for-profit Cleveland Clinic is tightening its belt. Me worry?
I believe the stock market is nearing a top in months ahead. In addition to trend analysis, we also compute cycles by analyzing daily S&P 500 Index (SPX) percent swings from -3% to +2%. In my opinion, the latest cycle of improving stock prices appears to be nearing a peak.
We are long S&P 500 and like Internet, biotech, Japan, and technology.
Our analysis indicates that all style boxes have positive momentum with growth slightly leading value. In our opinion, the most promising sectors are semiconductor and oil; whereas precious metals may not perform well.
Emerging markets look strongest in the world right now, followed by the S&P 500 and FTSE in London. The U.S. dollar has negative momentum indicating a weak-inflating economy.
The investments discussed are held in client accounts as of September 30, 2013. These investments may or may not be currently held in client accounts. The reader should not assume that any investments identified were or will be profitable or that any investment recommendations or investment decisions we make in the future will be profitable. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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