Monday Night Massacre? No, Jets to Jump Over Texans

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Published October 08, 2012

| FOXBusiness

Week 5 closes out with the undefeated Houston Texans (4-0) coming to Metlife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-2).

The AFC South-leading Texans are 4-0 for the first time in franchise history with a real chance to extend that wining streak to five games over the struggling Jets. While overall the offense is middle of the pack, averaging a 15th-best 370.3 total yards a game, they are second in the league in scoring putting up an average of 31.5 points a game, and are equally dangerous through the air and on the ground.

QB Matt Shaub is third in the league with a rating of 105.3, averaging 238 yards passing per game with seven touchdowns to only one interception this season. RB Arian Foster is fifth in the league, averaging 95 yards per game rushing and tallying four touchdowns so far. Foster should have a big game against the 31st ranked Jets defense, which has surrendered six touchdowns and 172.8 yards average on the ground and will likely be without NT Sione Po’ouha. 

Defensively the Texans have been terrorizing opponents, allowing only 273 yards and 14 points per game,  which is third and second, respectively, in the league. One key matchup will be how the Jets offensive line slows Texans DE J.J. Watt, who led the league through four games with 7.5 sacks.

The Jets are coming off a 34-0 blowout loss to San Francisco last week that saw only 145 yards of total offense. While they were tied for first in the AFC East the team has been decimated by injuries early in the season, losing their best playmakers on offense in WR Santonio Holmes and defense with CB Darrelle Revis both out for the season. Also doubtful for the game is TE Dustin Keller, QB Mark Sanchez’s favorite target, who could miss his fourth game, as well as rookie WR Stephen Hill and NT Sione Po’ouha, who is the lynchpin in the Jets run defense.

The team made efforts to add some offensive weapons, signing speedy WR Jason Hill, formally of the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. Sanchez has struggled and is ranked 31st in the league with a rating of 69.6, and the ground attack has not fared much better, ranked 25th in the league and averaging only 86.5 yards per game. Look for the Jets to give more time to backup QB Tim Tebow with Wildcat and option packages in an effort to keep the Texans' defense off balance. 

If Sanchez continues to struggle, Tebow could even replace him full time. CBs Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson will have to step up their game as they will be called on to defend Andre Johnson and the other Texan receivers in man coverage as the Jets crowd the box to slow down Foster and try to put pressure on Shaub.

FOX Business has evaluated the win/loss and stock market statistics over the past 20 seasons of Monday night NFL games and come up with a Monday Night Markets (MNM) score for each team, based on their record and the prior week’s market activity. Let’s take a look at what the markets have to say:

The Dow Industrials ended last week up, gaining 1.29%, and the S&P 500 was up as well, closing out the week with a 1.41% gain. The markets were buoyed by a surprise drop in September’s unemployment rate and also got a bounce after Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s strong performance in the first debate, overcoming earlier pressure on concerns that Spain might request a eurozone bailout.

Over the past 20 years, the Texans have played four Monday night games, and based on our calculations have a Monday night rank of .333 when the Dow closes the prior week up and .500 when the S&P 500 is up, giving them a MNM rank for this week of .417.

During the same 20-year period, the Jets have played 19 Monday night games and have a rank of .533 when the Dow is up and .500 when the S&P 500 is up, giving them an MNM rank this week of .517.

Monday Night Markets picks the New York Jets at home over the Houston Texans.

Week 5 FBN Staff Picks:

Texans @ Jets

Robert Gray (3-2)

Houston hasn’t had many opportunities to play under the lights on Monday Night. The high-powered Texans offense will make the most of it, grounding the sputtering Jets.

 

Sandra Smith (2-3)

Texans!

 

 

 

Connell McShane (2-3)

Texans

 

 

 

The Monday Night Markets (MNM) rank is derived by taking the number of games won during each market condition of up or down during a twenty-year period, over the total number of games played. Each result for the Dow and S&P are averaged to determine a final rank between 0 and 1.

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