TradeKing Midday Market Call Recap: SPX, RUT, VIX, GOOG

Published August 08, 2012

| TradeKing

TradeKing Midday Market Call Recap: SPX, RUT, VIX, GOOG



Recap for Tuesday, August 7th by Kevin Corrigan

Did you miss Tuesday’s TradeKing Midday Market Call? Here’s a quick recap. Don’t miss another session, register here today!

Analysis from Quick Takes Pro’s Michael Kahn:

S&P 500 (SPX) – at the time of this broadcast, SPX was around 1,405.42 up 11.19 from Monday’s close. We had a false breakdown recently in the SPX and main reason was because the European Central Bank (ECB) actual decide to act. Since that news about 5 days ago the trend for the index has been to the upside. On the upside we have drawn a trend line at about the 1,422.80 mark which is the most recent high. That line should provide some resistance.  Other things to point out on the chart is the low volume that started the rally and the choppy nature of the rally. It just means there does not seem to be a lot of convection around the move. The rally is really unsupported by any other technicals, it seems to only be getting momentum from the  hope for more stimulus.



Russell 2000 (RUT) – at the time of this broadcast, the RUT was trading around 804.07. This pattern is a little different than the SPX. The upside tread is still going in the big stocks, but it has broken down in the little stocks of the Russell. The relative performance vs S&P 500 on the bottom chart is obviously trending down and when the small stocks are not in the lead that is generally not a good thing.
 


Discussion from TradeKing Options Analyst Brian Overby:

VIX – at the time of this broadcast the CBOE volatility index (VIX) was about 15.50, down a little on the day. It’s relatively low compared to where it has been. It is currently trading below its 100-day moving average of 18.81. The news from the ECB has driven the VIX back down towards the yearly lows and we are finally seeing the futures come in along with the VIX spot index. The October future was at 20.85 below the 200-day moving average of 21.21.

Michael Kahn’s Chart of the Day is Google – symbol GOOG

Google symbol GOOG - At the time of this broadcast, was 640.97, down a little on the day.
From July into August Google has had a nice rally. The price on the upside normally will follow the upper bollinger band, recently we see a high outside the band and then a higher high right after that but inside the band. This is what Michael calls a divergence. It is a sign of waning momentum. On bottom chart of RSI we see that has the RSI has flattened out even though the stock has made a higher high. Which is another confirmation that the stock is tired. Overall Bearish feeling here.



Technical tools used:
- Support / resistance
- Trendlines
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Brian Overby’s potential strategy based on Michael’s chart – GOOG – Long Put Spread

GOOG – The Implied Volatility (IV) of around 20.30 is rather low compared to its historical implied volatility. Part of the reason is they recently announced earnings and after the earnings there has been a solid rally in the stock price, which also tends to drive IV lower.  This would lead us towards an outright purchase of a put option, but google is obviously an expensive stock and the absolute cost of the stock will make the option contract prices expense irregardless of what the IV is doing to the option contract price. So we would like to lower the overall cost by spreading off the long option.

GOOG – Speculative Strategy - Long Put Spread
- Buy 1 GOOG Aug 640 Put (Bid 7.80, Ask 8.10)
- Sell 1 GOOG Aug 615 Put (Bid 2.00, Ask 1.80)
- 11 days until expiration
- Total commission to enter this trade is $6.90
- Bid, Mid and Ask for the spread is (Bid 5.80, Mid 6.05, Ask 6.30)
- Total net debt if we paid the Ask price is 6.30

- Maximum potential loss for this trade is the net debit paid, 6.30.

- Maximum potential gain for the position is width between the strikes 25 (640 - 615) less the net debit paid 6.30 or 18.70 (25 - 6.30).

GOOG – Longer Term - Less Speculative Strategy - Long Put Butterfly
- Buy 1 GOOG Sep 640 Put (Bid 17.00, Ask 17.30)
- Sell 2 GOOG Sep 615 Put (Bid 8.30, Ask 8.50)
- Buy 1 GOOG Sep 590 Put (Bid 3.80, Ask 4.10)
- 46 days until expiration
- Total commission to enter this trade is $7.55
-  Bid, Mid and Ask for the butterfly is (Bid 3.80, Mid 4.30, Ask 4.80)
- Total net debt if we paid the Ask price is 4.80

- Maximum potential loss for this trade is the net debit paid, 4.80.

- Maximum potential gain for the position is width between the strikes 25 (640 - 615) less the net debit paid 4.80 or 20.20 (25 - 4.80).

**NOTE: option prices are given as a per contract amount. Multiply loss and gain figures by 100 shares and by the number of contracts traded to determine the amount of the full potential loss or full potential gain. No additional calculations are needed to determine commission costs.

TradeKing Options Tools used:
- TradeKing Options Chain
- Detailed Quote / Earnings Calendar
- TradeKing Volatility Charts

Get solid market analysis and potential trading ideas. Take 15 minutes of your lunch with our team, as they analyze the market during this live online session. As an added bonus, a stock chart will be covered in detail each session accompanied by a potential option trade. This might be the most valuable thing you do all week! Every Tuesday midday from 12:00 - 12:15pm ET.

Don’t miss the next TradeKing Midday Market Call. Register here: www.tradeking.com/events

Regards,
Kevin Corrigan
VP Content and Social Media
www.tradeking.com

At the time of publication and in the preceding month, TradeKing and/or Michael Kahn did not have ownership greater than 1% in any stocks mentioned; did not have any other actual, material conflict of interest known at the time of publication; have not received compensation from a public offering nor from investment banking services related to any companies mentioned within the past 12 months, nor expect to receive any in the next 3 months; nor engaged in market making in the securities mentioned.

Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling options, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, sent to you in previous communication. Additional copies may be obtained by calling TRADEKING at 877-495-KING or by visiting www.TradeKing.com/ODD.

System response and access times may vary due to market conditions, system performance, and other factors.

Multiple leg options strategies involve additional risks and multiple commissions, and may result in complex tax treatments. Please consult a tax advisor.

Any strategies discussed and examples using actual securities and price data are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes only and are not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Consider the following when making an investment decision: your financial situation, your risk profile and transaction costs.

Market timing is a complex investment strategy which involves risk and may incur additional commission costs.

While implied volatility represents the consensus of the marketplace as to the future level of stock price volatility, there is no guarantee that this forecast will be correct.
TradeKing charges $4.95 for online equity and option trades, add 65 cents per option contract. TradeKing charges an additional $0.35 per contract on certain index products where the exchange charges fees. See our FAQ for details. TradeKing adds $0.01 per share on the entire order for stocks priced less than $2.00. See our Commissions + Fees page for commissions on broker-assisted trades, low-priced stocks, option spreads, and other securities.

The projections or other information generated by TradeKing's tools regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The calculations do not take into consideration all costs, such as commissions and margin interest which may impact the results shown. It is the user's sole responsibility to select the criteria to enter in the TradeKing's tools, or to choose among the pre-defined screens, and to evaluate the merits and risks associated with the use of the tools before making any investment decisions. TradeKing is not responsible for any losses that occur from such investment decisions.

TradeKing Webinars and All-Star Blogs are provided for educational and informational purposes only. All investments involve risk, losses may exceed the principal invested, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. TradeKing provides self-directed investors with discount brokerage services, and does not make recommendations or offer investment, financial, legal or tax advice. You alone are responsible for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of TradeKing's systems, services or products.

TradeKing selects and defines as All-Stars certain independent market commentators who are recognized industry personalities and experienced traders and who provide timely market commentary via the TradeKing All-Star Blog and/or TradeKing Webinars. Each All-Star commentator's bio, related qualifications and disclosure as to their relationship with TradeKing can be found on the All-Star Roster. The selection of All-Star commentators is solely based on the quality and style of the content provided. TradeKing does not measure, endorse, or monitor the performance or correctness of any statement or recommendation made by independent All-Stars commentators. Supporting documentation for any claims made by TradeKing All-Stars will be supplied upon request by the author of the post, who is solely responsible for the views expressed. Contact TradeKing All-Stars by sending an email message to TKallstars@tradeking.com.

URL

http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/2012/08/08/tradeking-midday-market-call-recap-spx-rut-vix-goog/