It’s been a long and tiring election season. And what seems like years of intense campaigning all comes down to this: Election Day 2012.
But before the last ballots are cast, the polls close, and a winner is decided, there’s a lot of speculation over which candidate will emerge victorious. And while many of the scientific polls seem to contradict each other in the final hours leading up to Election Day, not all polls should be taken as seriously. We rounded up some of our favorite non-scientific election 2012 predictors.
The Battle for 7-Election
The 7-Eleven tradition began in 2000 when the convenience store invited customers to “grab a cup of hot, fresh coffee, and cast your vote.” It was so popular the tradition continues 12 years later for a fourth election cycle. Customers can show their support for American democracy by sipping their morning Joe from either a red Romney cup or a blue Obama cup.
In the last three election cycles, the 7-Election has correctly predicted that year’s winner. In 2000 the red cups for George W. Bush outsold the blue Al Gore cups by 1 percentage . In 2004, Bush cups enjoyed a 2-point lead over John Kerry cups. And in 2008, Barack Obama lead John McCain 46% to 42%.
This year, President Obama leads in the coffee competition by a much wider margin than four years ago. 7-Eleven customers predict an Obama victory tonight by 59%-41% nationally, with all but three of the 35 participating states in the blue. Those in the red include Idaho, West Virginia, and Vermont.
Predicted winner: Barack Obama
The Redskins Rule
After a five-game losing streak, on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers walked off the football field with a win over the Washington Redskins.
If you’re a football fanatic and a firm believer in wacky election predictors, the Redskins rule is probably your indication Mitt Romney will emerge victorious on election night 2012.
Here’s why: The Redskins Rule states if the Washington Redskins win their last home game before a presidential election, the incumbent will remain in office. But if the Redskins lose that all-important game, the challenger, in this case, Mitt Romney will win the White House.
Steve Hirdt, the rule’s creator, is the executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau and is Monday Night Football’s director of information. He stumbled upon the rule on October 30, 2000, in an attempt to add some colorful conversation for the show’s commentators. Hirdt discovered the rule when he began looking through scores, outlining home game winners before Election Day and incumbent wins on Election Day. He told ESPN he was “shocked” to see the statistics line up so perfectly.
The Redskins Rule has held true in the last 17 of 18 presidential elections. The only exception was when Bush defeated Kerry in 2004.
Predicted winner: Mitt Romney
‘Unmasking’ Political Preference
Imitation might be the sincerest form of flattery. In the case of election predictors, it’s one of the most popular election predictors of them all. According to the nation’s largest seasonal Halloween retailer, Spirit Halloween, Obama face masks outsold Mitt Romney masks by a 60% to 40% margin this year.
Since it started keeping track in 1996, the retailer has correctly predicted the next man to occupy the White House based solely on mask sales. Oddly enough, Obama led John McCain by the same Halloween mask margin in 2008.
Predicted winner: Obama
Voting by the Bottle
Forget Halloween masks, football stats and Gallup polling. Some might say the best way to get a grip on the nation’s political pulse is through a good old fashioned brewsky.
Last week, Beerjobber.com, a website offering craft beer direct from the brewery launched an election special in an effort to predict who the next President of the United States might be. The site offered customers two options: a pro-Obama beer called “Entitlement Porter,” a recipe based on a special White House recipe, and a “Nobama Beer” made by Huebert Brewery based out of Oklahoma. In addition to its specialty brews, the website also asked customers to cast their vote on the company’s blog. And for those still undecided leading up to Election Day, the website offered an “undecided pack” which included one of each specialty beer.
The two political brews, which went for $9.95 a bottle, sold out within a matter of hours, according to the website. But when it came to predicting a winner, well, the undecideds have it. That option sold out the quickest.
“We quickly sold out of the quantities last week,” Sean Nevins, founder of Beerjobber, said in a statement. “The response was much greater than we anticipated. We really couldn’t call a winner based on sales because we sold out of everything.”
Despite the tie in the actual beer race, the website’s online poll predicts an Obama victory. As of late Monday afternoon, Obama took a lead with 80% of the vote.
Beer lovers fear not. The website began selling a second limited edition quantity of both its election selections at noon Tuesday.
Despite the tie in the actual beer race, the website’s online poll predicts an Obama victory. As of late Tuesday afternoon, Obama took a lead with 80% of the vote.
Predicted winner: Undecided, leans Obama
The Business of Politics
FOX Business’ own Charlie Gasparino said Tuesday though many polls show a clear Obama victory in the Electoral College, stock traders point to an entirely different outcome.
“It looks like there are people making bets in the market, traders, that Romney is going to win, even though if you look at Intrade, that trading mechanism where people pick the presidency, it’s heavily weighted toward Obama,” he said.
Gasparino pointed to a bump up in coal stocks, financials, defense contractors and others – which could signal a Romney win on Election night.
“If you look at some stocks today, they are clearly pointing to a Romney victory,” he said. “Citigroup’s up marginally today. Why are they up? Obviously, because a Romney presidency, you would get rid of some of the really nasty stuff on Dodd Frank. Why are industrials up? It’s because you have defense contractors in there.”
He added, though, that the price of gold is up Tuesday, which could be a good sign for Obama.
“That should point to an Obama victory as well, because it would keep Ben Bernanke in there, keep Fed interest rate policy, keep printing money, that’s generally good for gold stocks.”
Predicted winner: Undecided