President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney are tied - that's what the polls say. But if you ask the campaigns, they might tell you something else. 

Obama's top political advisors proclaimed the political stalemate ends tomorrow, promising the incumbent will win the popular vote and a second term. 

Advisors David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs and David Plouffe said Obama has held small, consistent leads throughout the major swing states. That, they said confidently, gives them more paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

"We're not throwing Hail Mary's here" said Axelrod, in a reference to Romney's play in Pennsylvania.

Obama's final day of campaigning brings him to Wisconsin, Columbus, Ohio, and Des Moines, Iowa before arriving in Chicago in the early hours of Election Day.

The president's argument for a second term: he inherited an economic mess, addressed it, the country is improving and a second term will continue that momentum.

Obama is also waging a proxy campaign between the administrations of President George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, tying his economic policies and results to Clinton and Romney's to Bush.

"Our ideas have been tested. We’ve tried them. They  worked. The other side’s ideas have also been tested. They didn’t work so well ... we’ve been cleaning up after ever since" said the president.

It is with that argument and a ground game Obama aides described as "light years ahead" of Romney's that the incumbent's team pulls into Chicago.

Meanwhile, Romney's campaign has referenced favorable results in early voting and independent polling as proof the challenger will carry Election Day.

The confidence of both campaigns is indicative of a historically close election in which both campaigns can point to a realistic chance at victory Tuesday.

Rich Edson joined the FOX Business Network as a Washington correspondent in October 2007.